Previews in the paint: UC Bearcats

Ladies and gentlemen, we are just 10 days away from the silver lining of a Cincinnati winter: college basketball. The Musketeers tip off against Farleigh Dickinson at home on Nov. 9, with Coach Chris Mack attempts to rebuild a program riddled with transfers. The larger hope for the Queen City, for a change, lies with the Bearcats, as UC takes the floor against Tennessee-Martin on Nov. 11 in Fifth-Third Arena.

With a slough of Midwestern teams rounding out the national polls (Indiana, Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan filling the top five spots in both the AP and the USA Today rankings), it's easy to be excited for the region. Even closer to home, though, the Bearcats have made their national claim in the AP Top 25 with a No. 24 ranking.

ESPN also places UC in the No. 24 slot, likely with recognition of UC's postseason surprise in 2012, a Sweet Sixteen run that ended to with a loss to a fellow Buckeye public school, Ohio State. The Bearcats return three starters from that squad, a trio of guards that can rival almost any D-I program's backcourt. Sean Kilpatrick, Cashmere Wright, and JaQuon Parker all are extremely talented ball-handers who can shoot the lights out (all three averaged over 10 points per game last season--well, 9.4 for Parker, but close enough).

The largest concern for the Bearcats will be the absence of Yancy Gates, who controlled the post extremely well (and dropped Xavier's Kenny Frease in one punch, but that's not necessarily a stat Coach Mick Cronin is trying to replace). Gates averaged 8.9 rebounds and 12.2 points per game last season, a big hole to fill, but Cronin has the option to deploy Cheikh Mbodj, Justin Jackson, and David Nyarsuk in his place. Mbodj and Jackson each had significant playing time last year, while the junior transfer Nyarsuk, from Mountain State, is a "dunking machine," according to ESPN.

Cincinnati should walk over teams their first four games (Tennessee-Martin, Mississippi Valley State, North Carolina A&T, and Campbell) until meeting Iowa State and then #18 UNLV or Oregon in the Global Sports Invitational.

The Bearcats were selected in the Big East preseason coaches' poll to finish fourth (1. Louisville, 2. Syracuse, 3. Notre Dame), Cincinnati's highest preseason conference ranking ever. Many feel the Bearcats are severely underestimated, though, and see them as the dark horse who could spoil it all.

Is it November yet?

0-for-October in Cincinnati is finally over. 

The Reds couldn't advance.

Then Bengals failed to win a game, going 0-3 over the month.

The Bearcats had a shot to beat a ranked team on Friday night, but fell a field goal short in overtime against Louisville. And that came a week after spoiling a perfect record to the Toledo Rockets, no less.

For Cincy, October has been rough.

Today, though there will be no despair. The Queen City Sport Report guarantees to you, the reader, the fan, that a loss will not be had. 

The Bengals, we promise, will not disappoint today.

Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton, and the talented A.J. Green will not lose. Not again.

The Bengals are on bye today.

Enjoy a Sunday outside the loss column, Cincinnati.

Building supply brawls

With the Bengals on bye this week, the Queen City will turn to the collegiate landscape to get its football fix. A pair of rivalry games should make things interesting.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ #16 Louisville Cardinals

In the 52nd Battle of the Keg of Nails (although I'm not sure why anyone would want a keg of nails), the Big East standings could finally get some clarification. The Cardinals (2-0 in Big East play) are currently in second place behind #15 Rutgers (4-0 Big East record), while Cincinnati (1-0 Big East record) rounds out the third spot. UC leads the all-time series between the schools 29-21-1, with the Bearcats winning the last four meetings. Cincinnati also holds a 13-9-1 advantage in games played at Louisville and has a two-game winning streak at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.

At times, the Cincinnati offense has been of quality caliber, with running back George Winn averaging 101 yards per game, and quarterback Munchie Leguax averaging 283 total offensive yards. The defense has allowed only 16.8 points per game, along with racking up the tackles for loss. The front of their schedule is loaded with cupcake teams (Delaware State, Fordham), and their only big win has been on opening night against Pittsburgh. To be fair, though, the 'Cats showed up when their Big East record was on the line.

The Cardinals have stumbled over an easy non-conference schedule, looking much more unimpressive than their ranking and 7-0 overall record would suggest. Quarterback Terry Bridgewater has lived up to expectations with a 73 percent completion rate and 11 touchdowns, but the rest of the team has been average to above average at everything. That's what happens when you beat UNC, South Florida, Florida International, and Southern Mississippi by a combined 18 points.

As you can see, both teams are largely untested in big games, and the winner of this matchup will likely contest Rutgers for the conference title.

#24 Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks

The Battle of the Bricks (seriously, what's up with fighting over construction supplies?) finds itself in Oxford on Saturday as the Bobcats travel to Yager Stadium.

Ohio hit the national spotlight in Week 1 with a win over Penn State, but haven't faced any real competition since that game. Their 3-0 conference record puts them at second in the MAC-East division, but those three wins came against UMass, Akron and Buffalo--arguably the three worst MAC teams. The RedHawks, too, have posted wins against UMass and Akron, but fell to Bowling Green and third place in the MAC-East standings. Miami (2-1 MAC record) could lock a spot in the conference championship game by winning their five remaining MAC games.

The biggest statistical story to watch during this game is that of RedHawk quarterback Zac Dysert, a member of the NCAA's exclusive 10.00 yard club. Dysert currently is in 61st place with 10,444 career passing yards. A 17th career passing effort could move Dysert past Boston College's Dough Flutie (1,579), USC's Matt Leinart (10,693) and Marshall's Chad Pennington (10,698).

And so the questions begin...

Let's imagine a hitter batting .213 over the entire season with a .277 on-base percentage and an OPS of .610.

166 strikeouts over 544 plate-appearcnces.

WAR? -.02

Eighth hitter in the lineup? Prospect off the the bench?

The said player is in fact a regular starter in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and for a better part of his career, has held the leadoff position.

But for how long will the madness that is Drew Stubbs' career continue under Dusty Baker in the Queen City.

Thanks to Billy Hamilton, it doesn't look like long.

Hamilton has reportedly been learning to play centerfield in the Arizona Fall League. Under the tutorage of former Reds great Eric Davis, Hamilton, normally a shortstop, has been practicing his reads on the ball off the bat from the outfield, learning to recognize each hitter's tendencies, and to cover the large area of ground.

Obviously learning to play an entirely unfamiliar position at the professional level is never the hope of an organization, but Hamilton, with 155 steals this year (the most ever in professional baseball), is the exception.

Baker has fiddled with the leadoff spot in Cincy for the past few seasons, occupied at times by Stubbs, Brandon Phillips, and recently, Zach Cozart. Phillips has proved the most dangerous, but his power beckons him to move runners over and drive runs in. Cozart is quick and developing as a hitter, but hasn't arrived at the level of leading off for a championship-caliber club.

Hamilton, untested in the Majors, could fill the long-time void for the Reds. The speedster posted a .311 average last season in the leadoff spot with a .410 OBP over 132 games. He also scored 112 runs to Stubbs 75 (very different levels of play, yes...but still).

The question is, will Hamilton be ready for the show in time for the Reds to make use of him. It's unlikely he will begin the season in Cincinnati, but there is a good chance he could make an appearance before the All-Star break. Stubbs' stellar defense has kept him on the field, the fastest player currently on the Reds' roster, but the offense/defense imbalance has grown to alarming levels. With Hamilton waiting in line, the time is now to find a better option at the top of the order.

Hypothetical reality: the BCS and UC

Today, we're going to speak in hypothetical terms. IF Romney beats Obama next month, IF Bronson Arroyo cuts his hair, IF the Ohio River floods again...then what? All big, hypothetical "if"s, but today we are going to tackle such an enigma that some of America's greatest sports minds cannot even explain its processes: the BCS selection committee.

The hypothetical question? What IF the University of Cincinnati Bearcats finish the 2012 football season undefeated?

Then what?

First, let's look at recent history. In 2009, the Bearcats accomplished this goal, running the table 12-0 and winning the Big East automatic bid outright. Cincy finished the regular season ranked third in the BCS standings and fourth in the AP Top 25. Alabama and Texas finished at No. 1 and 2, both undefeated as well and having won their conference championship games, a game not hosted in the Big East at the time.

UC literally did everything in their power in 2009 to reach a BCS championship. They beat every team, some games close, but most pretty handily. No championship shot, though. The Sugar Bowl is in fact a big deal, of course, but it wasn't for it all. Tim Tebow instituted his final farewell with a 54-21 victory over the Bearcats, but many were still upset that perfect was not good enough.

Obviously, the BCS isn't going to be fixed this year. The four-team playoff bracket would have likely lent Cincinnati at least the opportunity to reach the championship game, but this new provision won't take place until 2014. 

In 2009, UC defeated three ranked BCS teams: No. 21 South Florida, No. 25 West Virginia, and No. 15 Pittsburgh. This season, with seven weeks remaining, no ranked teams have been faced and only No. 16 Louisville and No. 15 Rutgers lie ahead. 

Alabama defeated five ranked teams in 2009: No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 20 Ole Miss, No. 22 South Carolina, No. 9 LSU, and No. 1 Florida. This season, the Crimson Tide have already defeated No. 8 Michigan and have No. 12 Mississippi State, No. 6 LSU, and No. 18 Texas A&M in upcoming weeks. If they can successfully drop all these teams, they will again reign No. 1. 

IF Cincinnati were to go 12-0, then yes, they would be guaranteed a spot in one of the five BCS Bowl games. But the championship? For all the marbles? The grand-daddy of them all? Forget about it.

What am I saying? Cincinnati is perfect five games in and is only No. 21 in the BCS rankings. Nine undefeated teams are ahead of them, while 10 with a single loss and even Stanford with a pair of "L"s also find themselves above the Bearcats.

Fair?

Considering strength of schedule, conference, maybe. But only just maybe. 

What is it to strive to perfection if such an achievement is not rewarded? What if perfect is not good enough? 

The sad truth is, under the current format, UC will likely never see a shot of the championship, no matter how many seasons they remain undefeated. Look at Boise State and its struggles, now joining the Big East in 2013 to fight for the chance at it all. 

Good luck, Broncos. The Bearcats have been playing that same tune for seasons now.

This is all hypothetical, of course. One loss on the UC schedule, and the black mark will keep them playing in some Car-Parts-Chips-Insurance-Sporting-Apparel Bowl with the stadium half full.

That, is not hypothetical. That is reality. The BCS reality. And without a true Division-I playoff system, it will remain the sad truth for those in select few in the red and black that achieve perfection.

The five stages of mourning

It's taken some time for me to work up the nerve to write this. The past few days I think I've gone through all the stages of mourning.

First, denial. It's not over. 162 regular season games over five and half months, 97 wins through the good times and the bad. It can't be over, not like this. It went so well, two games no problem? No. It just...can't.

Next, anger. 28 men left on base over the three home games? Catchers letting pitches by for extra bases? Errors? This has been a team with a .985 regular season fielding percentage, sixth best in the MLB, and now a bobble when it counts? And why look at that strike, Ryan Hanigin, even if it was close? Swing! You have guys running! Make contact! Dusty, why not pitch Chapman two innings when he's hot? So many things...makes me...so...mad.

Then came bargaining. If you do this again next year, Reds, I'll quit being a fan. But, redeem yourselves, win it all, and I'll forget it ever happened. If you stay out of my head for awhile and let me try to look forward to college basketball, I'll forget the pain. At least, oh gods of baseball, let Todd Frazier win Rookie of the Year, and I won't be so upset.

Depression, the worst stage of all, hit next. I was irritable to those around me. In a daze, I was brokenhearted. How could they do this. This was the team, the time, Cincinnati had waited so long. Was it bad luck? No matter what I did, I couldn't stop thinking about it. Brandon Phillips played great. Homer Bailey pitched as if he were Justin Verlander's long lost twin. But now, they have to start all over again.

Finally, as I painfully write this, acceptance. 2012, despite the ending, was a great season for the Cincinnati Reds. The city rallied behind the team, and they responded with win after win. Vying for the best record in baseball, stars like Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier emerged in the absence of seemingly irreplacable Joey Votto. Mat Latos demonstrated his worth on the mound, while Aroldis Champan became a national story as a closer. Long-term deals were signed, with Votto and Phillips sticking around for years to come. Bailey finally arrived after years of waiting, and DatDudeBP once again showed that he is one of the most underrated players in the league.

A 2012 National League Central Division Champions pennant now hangs on the wall of my room, with space around it for the seasons to come.

The time

20 minutes until first pitch

Latos on the mound

It's now or never

Do or die

Reds

Too good to be true...so far

At risk of jinxing tonight's game, I'm going to say it: the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far in the 2012 postseason.

As if a 9-0 win over the Giants on Sunday night doesn't prove it, look at the offensive and defensive numbers of the club. The Reds have the highest batting average thus far of any postseason team left (.297, Atlanta recorded a .308 in their wild-card loss) and a 1.00 earned run average.

Let me repeat that: a 1.00 E....R....A.

In the opinion of many critics, the national media has done a poor job of recognizing the talented rotation and bullpen in the Queen City all year (3.34 regular season ERA, third best in entire MLB). The Reds did all they could to be noticed over the weekend, though, even overcoming unthinkable circumstances to get a decisive win.

With Johnny Cueto's back injury just eight pitches into Saturday's game, the hopes and dreams of a Red October deflated from me like air from a balloon. What was to come, however, reinstated that confidence, and pushed the level of belief higher than ever before. Sam LeCure produced when called upon, and Mat Latos showed once again why the offseason trade with the Padres was one of the best moves of the Walt Jocketty era.

Bronson Arroyo, without his red hooded sweatshirt, took the mound in a fly-ball park, his specialty, and dazzled the national viewing audience. Arroyo went seven strong innings with one hit, one walk, and no runs scored.

Matthew Carroll may have summed it up best in his tweet:

Matthew Carroll ‏@CoachMCarroll

Watching bronson arroyo pitch when he is on is like watching the worlds best wiffle ball pitcher. #Reds @DatDudeBP

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Brandon Phillips has taken advantage of the national spotlight, showing once again that he should be considered one of the greatest second baseman in the game, and that his absence in the All-Star game was in fact a snub. Phillips is batting .500 over the first two playoff games with a home run, postseason-leading four RBIs, and two doubles, all over five hits. Cap that off with some great defensive plays, especially the diving back-up behind first to save a run, and Phillips has looked like the postseason MVP two games in.

Jay Bruce, one of the streakiest All-Stars in baseball, is on fire thus far, and when number 32 is hot, he's hot. Bruce also has a home run (a monster 436-foot shot), two doubles, and three RBIs.

Another bright spot in the first few games for Cincinnati has been left field, usually the cause of much uncertainty for the Reds. Ryan Ludwick has come up big on both sides of the ball, with a few great snags, one diving and one over the head, along with a 432-foot bomb off of Madison Bumgarner. With Ludwick acting as a real threat at the plate, he's also drawing some walks and has scored a pair of runs to go with his .333 playoff batting average.

Some less positive spots have accompanied the glory games of October thus far. Aroldis Chapman, one of the most dominant closers this year, was having control issues on Saturday night. He escaped with allowing only one run on a wild pitch, but loaded the bases in the process with a hit and two walks. Chapman showed physical frustration when he felt the umpire missed a few strikes, but to criticize Chapman too harshly is unnecessary at this point. At some point, maybe even tonight, a close battle can not afford even one run surrendered by the Cuban Missile, and he will need to keep his composure to ensure Cincinnati can count on him in the late inning.

Another more obvious negative is the Johnny Cueto injury. Yes, Dusty and the Reds were quick on their feet when Redleg Nation had lost hope, but the Cy Young candidate is a crucial part of the lineup and will be needed come Game 4 or 5. Cueto is optimistic of a return by then, but the evaluation is still a day-to-day process. 

Tonight, though, MLB's newest member of the no-no club will take the mound. Homer Bailey, fresh off one of baseball's most difficult feats, takes the mound at 5:30 against Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.39 ERA). The Reds can clinch the series tonight with a win, giving them a four-day rest before facing either St. Louis or Washington (series tied 1-1).

As, I said, with chance of jinxing all that is good in Cincinnati, the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far. Tonight, they strive to continue on the path to all the way.

Numbers never lie

The Reds and Giants take the field in less than an hour for Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Cincinnati and San Francisco both have dominant pitching staffs, but this one will likely decided on who plays the best small-ball (AT&T is the ranked as the second most pitcher-friendly park by ESPN). To prepare you, we turn to the numbers:

Record

Reds 97-65 vs. 94-68 Giants

2012 regular season head-to-head

Reds 4 vs. 3 Giants

Last meeting on July 1

Reds 3 vs. 4 Giants 

Games decided by one run between CIN and SF

Reds 64 vs. 50 Giants

Opening Day payroll

Reds $76,181,365 vs. $118,216,333 Giants

Batting average

Reds .251 vs. .269 Giants

On-base percentage

Reds .315 vs. .327 Giants

Slugging percentage

Reds .411 vs. .397 Giants

Home runs

Reds 172 vs. 103 Giants

Triples

Reds 30 vs. 57 Giants

Stolen bases

Reds 87 vs. 118 Giants

Errors

Reds 89 vs. 116 Giants

Team ERA

Reds .334 vs. .368 Giants

Shutouts

Reds 12 vs. 14 Giants

Hits leader

Brandon Phillips 163 vs. 190 Marco Scutaro

Doubles leader

Joey Votto 44 vs. 39 Buster Posey 

Triples leader

Todd Frazier 6 vs. 15 Angel Pagan 

Home runs leader 

Jay Bruce 34 vs. 24 Hunter Pence

Welcome to October

Dear Cincinnati,

I don't want to cloud this moment with words, as today is a special day for the city.

It is a day to relax, a day to prepare. It is a day of anticipation as to what may come in the next few weeks, but also of gratification knowing that the Reds will forever be a part of the 2012 postseason.

Today, there are no games. No at-bats, no umps screaming balls and strikes, no beer vendors hollering up and down the rows. Not even a "Wooooo" breaks the silence. Just a peaceful quiet around Great American Ballpark. A tranquil, Fall Thursday.

Drink it in.

This is what baseball is supposed to be in Cincinnati.

This is October.

Welcome back, Reds.

Jim Mora's worst nightmare

Playoffs? Don't talk about--playoffs?! You kidding me?! Playoffs?

Okay, okay, I'm no Jim Mora, and the fact is, October is here. The Fall Classic is just weeks away, and the Cincinnati Reds have a chance to get there. With two games left in the season, though, the exact path to the World Series is unclear. The Nationals and Reds are currently tied for the best record in baseball, fighting for that number one spot.

So here's the breakdown: Cincy at St. Louis tonight and tomorrow, Washington home versus Philadelphia same days. Both are 96-64, but the Nats are 5-2 against the Redlegs, breaking the tie. The following outcomes over the next two days....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 2
2. Reds win 1, Nats win 1
3. Reds win 0, Nats win 0
4. Reds win 1, Nats win 2
5. Reds win 0, Nats win 2
6. Reds win 0, Nats win 1....

.....would produce:

The Reds would travel to San Francisco to play the No. 3 seeded, NL West Champion Giants for two games, Oct. 6-7. The next game will be at Great American Ballpark on Oct. 8, as will the following two should they be needed (series is best of five).

Or, the following outcomes.....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 1

2. Reds win 2, Nats win 0

3. Reds win 1, Nats win 0

would produce a playoff bracket like this, with the Cincinnati Reds owning the best record in all of MLB: 

If this turns out to be the case, the Reds will have to wait until after the Oct. 5 wildcard game to see who their opponent is, then fly to their city. They would then play two games at host Atlanta/St. Louis, then fly back for the third game in Cincinnati, as well as the last two, should they be required (again, best of five series). The major benefit of owning the best record would be, in theory, that the wildcard team they're facing will have already thrown their ace two days beforehand.

Whatever the case, the Reds will not be starting their playoff run at home. Whether this will benefit/harm them is questionable, but keep in mind the Reds are 46-31 on the road this season (second best in MLB, Washington is first).