Crunchin' numbers: Reds @ Cubs

The Reds and the Cubs hate each other. Period.

And today, Cincinnati travels to Wrigley Field to begin a three game series with Chicago, the nearly-NL Central champs versus those who hang only above Houston.

The Cubs have had a dismal year, yes, but still this game is one of the most-hyped matchups for the Reds all season, minus the Cardinals. So, on such an occasion, and to keep the rivalry blood flowing, we at Queen City Sports thought it best to provide a little statistical history before tonight's 8:05 p.m. first pitch.

Stats n' such (www.statsheet.com)

- The last time these two met, the Reds won by a single run.

- Head to head this season, the Reds are 9-4 against the Cubbies.

- Reds overall record is now 88-59, with the Cubs at 58-89. Ironic?

- Cincy is 41-26 in the NL Central, while Chicago is 29-43.

- Cubs are 36-36 at Wrigley Field this year.

- Reds have hit 166 home runs to the Cubs' 125.

- On the mound, Cincy pitchers have struck out 41 more batters.

- Cincinnati's team earned run average is 3.44, Chicago's 4.46.

- The Reds have 81 fielding errors to Chicago's 96.

- Over the past five years, the Reds have a .516 winning percentage versus the Cubs' .484.

- Over the past ten years, the Cubs have a .493 winning percentage versus the Reds' .486

- Cincinnati has beat Chicago by eight or more runs on 17 occasions since 1986.

- In games decided by one run between the Reds and Cubs, Cincy has won 68 of 117.

- The Cubs Opening Day payroll was $125,480,664 compared to the Reds' $76,181,365.

- There are 13 Cubbies in Cooperstown to the Reds' seven.

- The Reds have won five World Series to Chicago's two.

And for the grand finale, every Cincinnati fan's favorite: The Reds have been to more World Series since 1969 (Reds 5 v. Cubs 0). The Cubs have not been to the World Series since 1945, and have not won since 1908. The Reds' last World Series appearance was 1990 with a victory over the heavily favored Oakland Athletics.

W's all around! Weekend wrap-up

With today's results, each of the Cincinnati teams put one in the win column this weekend. Here's some quick hits from around the Queen City of how things stacked-up.

UC Bearcats

9/15 Bearcats 23, Delaware State 7

Senior RB George Winn -- 147 yards

Senior WR Damon Julian -- 62 yards, 1 touchdown

Junior QB Munchie Leguax -- 20 of 27 passing, 207 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 fumbles, 2 interceptions

The Bearcats did what was expected by dominating Delaware State. Turnovers were a major problem, though, and could cause problems if carelessness with the ball continues into Big East play.

Cincinnati Reds

9/14 Marlins 4, Reds 0 -- WP Jacob Turner, LP Bronson Arroyo, CIN 3B Todd Frazier 1 for 2

9/15 Marlins 6, Reds 4 -- WP Mark Buehrle, LP Johnny Cueto, CIN SS Wilson Valdez 2 for 4

9/16 Reds 5, Marlins 4 -- WP Logan Ondrusek, LP Carlos Zambrano, CIN SS Didi Gregorius 3 for 5

The Reds had disappointing outings from both Arroyo and Cueto, and have seemed to have lost any steam they had going into the postseason. The current lapse in pitching quality that has carried the team all year has severely exposed the offensive lack that the team suffers from. Regardless, a win today against Miami brings the magic number to clinch to five, with an off day tomorrow.

Cincinnati Bengals

9/16 Bengals 34, Browns 27

QB Andy Dalton -- 24 for 31 passing, 318 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interceptions

RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis -- 75 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns

WR Brandon Tate -- 3 recetpions, 71 yards, 1 touchdown

Cincinnati showed that a young core of receivers can produce great results, with Brandon Tate, A.J. Green, and Andrew Hawkins all hauling in a touchdown pass from Dalton. More concerning, though, is the fact that rookie Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden was able to put up 322 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati after producing just 118 yards and four picks against Philadelphia in Week 1.

If the playoffs began today.....

If you're anything like me, you never really know what exactly the playoff schedule has in store. This year's added Wild Card team, among other changes, has added to the confusion. So, to the best of my understanding, here is what the National League playoff bracket would look like if the regular season ended yesterday. As you can see, the Nationals have the No. 1 seed with the best record, with the Reds at number two and the Giants at No. 3. In my opinion, that's a good match-up for Cincinnati. The Giants are now without Melky Cabrera, and ace Madison Bumgarner has been struggling as of late. San Francisco, too, is a much better option in my mind than having to face a postseason-Cardinals squad or the recently-purchased All-Star lineup of Los Angeles (Dodgers only one game back of NL Wild Card spot).

Another Cuban Missile Crisis?

Has another Cuban Missile Crisis arisen upon this great nation?

First of all, a disclaimer. No one here is saying Aroldis Chapman has hit rock bottom, or that there is any question as to who the best closer in baseball is this season. Number 54 of the Reds has been excellent on the mound, and for some time, unhittable.

Because of this dominance, any miscue at all raises red flags across the country, and not the Cincinnati car-flags that fans attach to their windows. No, being perfect comes with a price, and that price is having your imperfections, when they finally surface, magnified in utter disbelief.

With that said, Chapman’s last two appearances have been disasters. On Friday, he recorded a blown save off a Matt Dominguez three-run homer, a shocking loss  to the worst team in baseball. Yesterday, he threw for two thirds of an inning before being pulled after loading the bases with walks. His earned run average reached 1.61 after Friday’s fiasco, a number most closers would love. For Chapman though, that number is his highest since July 20 and replaced his 1.23 ERA going into the game.

Many people have pointed to Chapman’s velocity as the problem. Dave Schoenfield of ESPN has reported that over his last three appearances, it truly has declined. Chapman, known for posting triple digit speeds, threw an average fastball speed of 98.0 mph on Sept. 4, 96.3 mph on Sept. 7, and 94.4 mph yesterday, according to Schoenfield.

Concern?

“He might be a little tired. He might have to rest for awhile,” Dusty Baker said yesterday following Chapman’s disappointing performance.

On nine occasions this year, Chapman relied solely on his fastball, some games averaging 100.0 to 101.3 mph. Lately, however, and not to discredit the value of mixing it up, Chapman has significantly raised his implementation of the slider. A usually effective pitch, Chapman threw his slider 21.7% of his pitches during his blown save on Friday.

What does this mean? Is Chapman, who was supposed to be a starter at the start of the year, reaching a point of late-season fatigue? Is there a mechanical breakdown erasing those crucial few miles per hour that can be a difference between the catcher’s mitt and the hands of a lucky fan in left field?

In this analyst’s opinion, Chapman is simply starting to wear down. Repetitive use does that to a player. Yes, many starters grow stronger as the year progresses, but Chapman is a closer who makes an appearance almost every other day, throwing high nineties to low hundreds on a consistent basis. The body, and the arm in particular, naturally needs rest.

The largest question is what to do about the Cuban Missile to best preserve him for the postseason. The odds of the Reds losing the division are currently at .05%, so coasting from here on out is acceptable if the goal is to make the playoffs. To succeed in October, though, Chapman must play a critical role in the Cincinnati bullpen. That means having him at 100%, pitching at or close to 100 mph.

For at least a week, I say rest the man. Maybe give him some bullpen work to keep him sharp, but give the arm a break. Cincinnati signed Jonathan Broxton before the trade deadline, a very capable closer who can produce when called upon. Let Broxton carry the majority of the workload for now, and then slide back into the setup role towards the end of the year.

This is not a Cuban Missile Crisis, Cincinnati. The missile just simply needs to cool his jets before he’s ready to fire again.

Monday Night Football: Bengals @ Ravens Fantasy Preview

The time has almost arrived for Monday Night Football and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals kick-off tomorrow night in Baltimore at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN, with a chance for an AFC North statement to be made by either team. Cincinnati is 9-19 on MNF, while Ravens are 8-9. Head-to-head, Baltimore leads the series 18-14.  Now, let’s be honest: while some of us may be watching for the true thrill of the rivalry, most will be cheering for our fantasy players. Here’s the position-by-position fantasy match-ups for both teams.

Quarterback

CIN – Andy Dalton – Position rank: T15; Completion %: 58.1; Yards: 3,398; Touchdowns: 20; Interceptions: 13; Rating: 80.4; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 195

BAL – Joe Flacco­ – Position rank: T15; Completion %: 57.6; Yards: 3,610; Touchdowns: 20; Interceptions: 12; Rating: 80.9; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 195

Edge: Wow, was not expecting this, but statistically Flacco and Dalton are practically identical. Quarterback is a toss-up.

Running Back

CIN – Benjarvus Green-Ellis – Position rank: 22; Yards: 826; Touchdowns 11; Fumbles: 0; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 138

BAL – Ray Rice – Position rank: 1; Yards: 2,068; Touchdowns 15; Fumbles: 2; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 283

Edge: Ray Rice and the Ravens. To be fair though, Green-Ellis was part of the pass-happy New England offense, and will see a much heavier workload in Cincinnati as the feature back.

#1 Wide Receiver

CIN – A.J. Green – Position rank: 16; Yards: 1,057; Touchdowns: 7; Fumbles: 1; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 144

BAL – Torrey Smith – Position rank: 22; Yards: 841; Touchdowns: 7; Fumbles: 1; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 123

Edge: A.J. Green and the Bengals. Both receivers had breakout years in 2011, their rookie season, and rose quickly to become Dalton and Flacco’s first choices.

Tight Ends

CIN – Jermaine Gresham­ – Position rank: 13; Yards: 596; Touchdowns: 6; Fumbles: 1; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 87

BAL – Ed Dickson – Position rank: 19; Yards: 528; Touchdowns: 5; Fumbles: 0; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 75

Edge: Jermaine Gresham and the Bengals. This one again is incredibly close, but outperformed Dickson as a rookie, with a rookie quarterback. Gresham is likely to be even more involved in the Cincinnati offense as a returning starter.

Defense/Special Teams

CIN – Position Rank: 9; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 133; Average fantasy points per week (in standard ESPN leagues): 8.3

BAL – Position rank: 3; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 283; Average fantasy points per week (in standard ESPN leagues): 17.7

Edge: Baltimore. The Ravens are known for their smash-mouth defense, led by Ray Lewis. This game could be decided by the ability of Baltimore to crash an offense’s party.

Kicker

CIN – Mike Nugent – Position rank: 7; Field goal attempts: 38; Field goals made: 33; Field goal %: 86.8; Fantasy points (in standard ESPN leagues): 141

BAL – Justin Tucker – Rookie

Edge: Nugent and the Bengals. Tucker won the spot from Billy Cundiff, but it’s tough to go with an un-tested rookie.

OVERALL FANTASY EDGE:

Tough, but the Ravens’ defense is going to tip the scales, as been the case the last few years. 

September 6 -- Weekend Preview

Huge weekend for Cincinnati sports, and a long weekend at that. Let's take a look ahead, shall we.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Cincinnati Bearcats, tonight 8 p.m. ESPN

An annual Big East premier match-up, Nippert Stadium is sure to be rockin' for the University of Cincinnati's season opener. The Bearcats squeezed a win out of this one last year by a mere three points, but the Panthers come to town 0-1 after a loss to, dare I say it, Youngstown State. Pittsburgh finished 6-7 overall last season, well behind Cincy's 10-3 mark. The Bearcats recorded better numbers in interceptions, passing touchdowns, rush yards per attempt, rushing yards per game, and sacks last year, but games are always close between these two teams. Cincinnati has won the the Paddlewheel Trophy the past three of four years, but historically the Panthers have dominated this match-up (8-3 in the River City Rivalry game). Pittsburgh also brings much more offensive experience in senior quarterback Tino Sunseri and running back Ray Graham, while Cincy quarterback Munchie Legaux makes his inaugural first-string start tonight.

UC Players to watch:

Munchie Legaux, #4 QB, Junior -- (2011) 749 pass yards on 116 attempts, 5 TD, 4 INT

George Winn, #32 RB, Senior -- (2011) 219 rush yards on 40 attempts, 2 TD

Anthony McClung, #6 WR, Junior -- (2011) 49 receptions for 683 yards, 6 TD

PITT Players to watch:

Tino Sunseri, #12 QB, Senior -- (2011) 2,616 total passing yards and a 124.1 QB rating 

Ray Graham, #1 RB, Senior -- (2011) 958 total rushing yards, 9 TD

Devin Street, #15 WR, Junior -- (2011) 53 receptions for 754 yards, 2 TD

Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros, 9/7, 9/8 7:10 p.m. FSN, 9/9 1:10 p.m. FSN

The Reds host Houston this weekend with an eight and a half game lead in the National League Central, hoping to inflate that gap. The Astros have the worst record in baseball and a interim manager at the helm. Head-to-head this season, the Reds are 9-3 against the Astros. Joey Votto will be truly game-tested if he plays in this entire series after going 2-3 in his return from knee surgery last night against the Phillies. Also, keep an eye on Todd Frazier's playing time; recently the NL Rookie of the Month, it will be interesting to see how Reds' manager Dusty Baker uses his young gun with Votto back in the lineup.

Probable pitchers:

9/7 HOU Lucas Harrell, RHP (10-9, 3.81 ERA) vs. CIN Homer Bailey RHP (10.9, 4.09 ERA)

9/8 HOU Bud Norris, RHP (5-11, 4.80 ERA) vs. CIN Bronson Arroyo RHP (11-7, 3.76 ERA)

9/9 HOU Edgar Gonzalez, RHP (1-0, 1.69 ERA) vs. CIN Johnny Cueto, RHP (17-7 2.58 ERA)

So fast the county was named after him before he was even born.....

           As we have become accustomed with Brad Pitt’s character in the 2011 baseball blockbuster film Moneyball, the Oakland A’s are a team willing to think outside the box to win. A small market club with small market money trying to compete in a large-market league has to do so to be successful. It comes as no surprise then, that in the 1970s the A’s tried something a little out of the ordinary, based on the idea of owner Charles Finley. Finley had a notion that speed was an essential element to a winning baseball franchise, and that the greatest place to demonstrate speed would be on the base paths. To satisfy the need for speed, he did something of a rarity in the sport of baseball: he instituted the specialist pinch runner.

            According to Baseball-Reference.com, Finley believed that having a man with wheels would give his team five to ten extra wins per season. To put his plan into action, outfielder Allen Lewis was utilized for this role from 1967 to 1973. In 1974, Finley took his theory to a whole new level by hiring Herb Washington, a track star with no prior baseball experience as his specialist. Washington was used in 91 games during the 1974 season, recording 29 runs and 29 stolen bases (caught stealing 16 times). His stay in the majors only lasted until early 1975, as his baseball instincts were obviously lacking, but the impact he left that speed was an invaluable tool in itself has left its mark on the game. Over the next few years, Finley shuffled in more specialist pinch runners, until Larry Lintz became the last of the breed in the 1977 season.

            What does this have to do with the Cincinnati? Well, we could very well be about to experience Finley’s experiment in front of our very eyes. As I’m sure anyone following Reds baseball has heard, shortstop Billy Hamilton just recently finished out the season with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA) and set the minor league stolen base record at 155 (previously 145 belonging to Vince Coleman, set in 1983), which is also the most across all professional baseball, even the majors. The record alone has gained national attention, but seeing Hamilton in person brings an even greater appreciation for his talents. Hamilton’s presence on base rattles pitchers: he is already in their head by just being in the game. Wild pitches are a common occurrence as pitchers keep an eye on his lead foot, knowing that he is likely to strike at any given moment. Many try their pick-off move again and again, only to be taunted as he glides into second the first time they dare to deliver the ball home. Prior to the season’s start, Hamilton played in the Reds’ “Futures Game,” an exibition between the 2012 Cincinnati Reds roster and a collection of the organization’s highest rated prospects. Hamilton stole one base easily, but on the second attempt catcher Devin Mesoraco was ready. He called a pitch-out in attempt to gun down Hamilton at second, a sure suicide attempt for most base runners.

            Hamilton beat the throw. He overslid, an unlucky move that got him tagged out as he scrambled back to the bag, but the crowd was already in awe. 21-year-old Billy Hamilton just outran a major league pitch-out.

            According to ESPN The Magazine, Hamilton has been clocked at 3.5 seconds from home to first, with the MLB average being only 4.2 seconds. He hit only two home runs this season: one of them was in the park, rounding the bases in under 13.8 seconds (fastest ever is 13.3 seconds, set in 1932 by Evar Swanson, according to Guinness World Records).

            Switch-hitting Hamilton has played shortstop this season in the minors, producing a .311 batting average and .410 on-base percentage. The Reds currently have a budding star in rookie Zach Cozart at shortstop, so many believe Hamilton’s speed will one day be utilized in the outfield for the big league club. As for this season, however, the question still remains: do the Reds call up Hamilton as a specialist pinch-runner for the playoffs? Cincinnati is currently eight and a half games ahead of St. Louis in the National League Central prior to today’s 7:10 p.m. matchup against Philadelphia, therefore likely to win the division. Having Hamilton on the bench could provide a weapon in a close game when every run counts, snagging a few extra bases when called upon. As if Cincy fans aren’t going to be pumped up enough watching their team after the 162 game mark, bringing Hamilton onto the field as a pinch-runner would instantly get into an opposing pitcher's head and intensify the atmosphere even more.

            Reds manager Dusty Baker said earlier this season that Hamilton’s call-up was “possible,” but John Fay, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reported on Saturday that Cincinnati general manger Walt Jocketty said probably not. There has been no final decision, however, and we all know baseball is a game of surprises. Even if Dusty and the Reds are ready to take a chance on Hamilton, is baseball ready yet again for a specialist pinch runner?

            That question has rattled the Queen City all summer, but consider this before forming your own opinion on Hamilton’s 2012 fate: the A’s made an appearance in each American League Championship Series from 1971 to 1975, winning back-to-back-to-back World Series titles in that expanse (defeated Cincinnati in the 1972 World Series, 4-3).

            Finley’s ideologies may have come to pass in Oakland, but a new “Man of Steal” could soon reign in Cincinnati.