Too good to be true...so far

At risk of jinxing tonight's game, I'm going to say it: the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far in the 2012 postseason.

As if a 9-0 win over the Giants on Sunday night doesn't prove it, look at the offensive and defensive numbers of the club. The Reds have the highest batting average thus far of any postseason team left (.297, Atlanta recorded a .308 in their wild-card loss) and a 1.00 earned run average.

Let me repeat that: a 1.00 E....R....A.

In the opinion of many critics, the national media has done a poor job of recognizing the talented rotation and bullpen in the Queen City all year (3.34 regular season ERA, third best in entire MLB). The Reds did all they could to be noticed over the weekend, though, even overcoming unthinkable circumstances to get a decisive win.

With Johnny Cueto's back injury just eight pitches into Saturday's game, the hopes and dreams of a Red October deflated from me like air from a balloon. What was to come, however, reinstated that confidence, and pushed the level of belief higher than ever before. Sam LeCure produced when called upon, and Mat Latos showed once again why the offseason trade with the Padres was one of the best moves of the Walt Jocketty era.

Bronson Arroyo, without his red hooded sweatshirt, took the mound in a fly-ball park, his specialty, and dazzled the national viewing audience. Arroyo went seven strong innings with one hit, one walk, and no runs scored.

Matthew Carroll may have summed it up best in his tweet:

Matthew Carroll ‏@CoachMCarroll

Watching bronson arroyo pitch when he is on is like watching the worlds best wiffle ball pitcher. #Reds @DatDudeBP

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Brandon Phillips has taken advantage of the national spotlight, showing once again that he should be considered one of the greatest second baseman in the game, and that his absence in the All-Star game was in fact a snub. Phillips is batting .500 over the first two playoff games with a home run, postseason-leading four RBIs, and two doubles, all over five hits. Cap that off with some great defensive plays, especially the diving back-up behind first to save a run, and Phillips has looked like the postseason MVP two games in.

Jay Bruce, one of the streakiest All-Stars in baseball, is on fire thus far, and when number 32 is hot, he's hot. Bruce also has a home run (a monster 436-foot shot), two doubles, and three RBIs.

Another bright spot in the first few games for Cincinnati has been left field, usually the cause of much uncertainty for the Reds. Ryan Ludwick has come up big on both sides of the ball, with a few great snags, one diving and one over the head, along with a 432-foot bomb off of Madison Bumgarner. With Ludwick acting as a real threat at the plate, he's also drawing some walks and has scored a pair of runs to go with his .333 playoff batting average.

Some less positive spots have accompanied the glory games of October thus far. Aroldis Chapman, one of the most dominant closers this year, was having control issues on Saturday night. He escaped with allowing only one run on a wild pitch, but loaded the bases in the process with a hit and two walks. Chapman showed physical frustration when he felt the umpire missed a few strikes, but to criticize Chapman too harshly is unnecessary at this point. At some point, maybe even tonight, a close battle can not afford even one run surrendered by the Cuban Missile, and he will need to keep his composure to ensure Cincinnati can count on him in the late inning.

Another more obvious negative is the Johnny Cueto injury. Yes, Dusty and the Reds were quick on their feet when Redleg Nation had lost hope, but the Cy Young candidate is a crucial part of the lineup and will be needed come Game 4 or 5. Cueto is optimistic of a return by then, but the evaluation is still a day-to-day process. 

Tonight, though, MLB's newest member of the no-no club will take the mound. Homer Bailey, fresh off one of baseball's most difficult feats, takes the mound at 5:30 against Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.39 ERA). The Reds can clinch the series tonight with a win, giving them a four-day rest before facing either St. Louis or Washington (series tied 1-1).

As, I said, with chance of jinxing all that is good in Cincinnati, the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far. Tonight, they strive to continue on the path to all the way.

Another Cuban Missile Crisis?

Has another Cuban Missile Crisis arisen upon this great nation?

First of all, a disclaimer. No one here is saying Aroldis Chapman has hit rock bottom, or that there is any question as to who the best closer in baseball is this season. Number 54 of the Reds has been excellent on the mound, and for some time, unhittable.

Because of this dominance, any miscue at all raises red flags across the country, and not the Cincinnati car-flags that fans attach to their windows. No, being perfect comes with a price, and that price is having your imperfections, when they finally surface, magnified in utter disbelief.

With that said, Chapman’s last two appearances have been disasters. On Friday, he recorded a blown save off a Matt Dominguez three-run homer, a shocking loss  to the worst team in baseball. Yesterday, he threw for two thirds of an inning before being pulled after loading the bases with walks. His earned run average reached 1.61 after Friday’s fiasco, a number most closers would love. For Chapman though, that number is his highest since July 20 and replaced his 1.23 ERA going into the game.

Many people have pointed to Chapman’s velocity as the problem. Dave Schoenfield of ESPN has reported that over his last three appearances, it truly has declined. Chapman, known for posting triple digit speeds, threw an average fastball speed of 98.0 mph on Sept. 4, 96.3 mph on Sept. 7, and 94.4 mph yesterday, according to Schoenfield.

Concern?

“He might be a little tired. He might have to rest for awhile,” Dusty Baker said yesterday following Chapman’s disappointing performance.

On nine occasions this year, Chapman relied solely on his fastball, some games averaging 100.0 to 101.3 mph. Lately, however, and not to discredit the value of mixing it up, Chapman has significantly raised his implementation of the slider. A usually effective pitch, Chapman threw his slider 21.7% of his pitches during his blown save on Friday.

What does this mean? Is Chapman, who was supposed to be a starter at the start of the year, reaching a point of late-season fatigue? Is there a mechanical breakdown erasing those crucial few miles per hour that can be a difference between the catcher’s mitt and the hands of a lucky fan in left field?

In this analyst’s opinion, Chapman is simply starting to wear down. Repetitive use does that to a player. Yes, many starters grow stronger as the year progresses, but Chapman is a closer who makes an appearance almost every other day, throwing high nineties to low hundreds on a consistent basis. The body, and the arm in particular, naturally needs rest.

The largest question is what to do about the Cuban Missile to best preserve him for the postseason. The odds of the Reds losing the division are currently at .05%, so coasting from here on out is acceptable if the goal is to make the playoffs. To succeed in October, though, Chapman must play a critical role in the Cincinnati bullpen. That means having him at 100%, pitching at or close to 100 mph.

For at least a week, I say rest the man. Maybe give him some bullpen work to keep him sharp, but give the arm a break. Cincinnati signed Jonathan Broxton before the trade deadline, a very capable closer who can produce when called upon. Let Broxton carry the majority of the workload for now, and then slide back into the setup role towards the end of the year.

This is not a Cuban Missile Crisis, Cincinnati. The missile just simply needs to cool his jets before he’s ready to fire again.