Saturday, October 6, 2012

Numbers never lie

The Reds and Giants take the field in less than an hour for Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Cincinnati and San Francisco both have dominant pitching staffs, but this one will likely decided on who plays the best small-ball (AT&T is the ranked as the second most pitcher-friendly park by ESPN). To prepare you, we turn to the numbers:

Record
Reds 97-65 vs. 94-68 Giants

2012 regular season head-to-head
Reds 4 vs. 3 Giants

Last meeting on July 1
Reds 3 vs. 4 Giants 

Games decided by one run between CIN and SF
Reds 64 vs. 50 Giants

Opening Day payroll
Reds $76,181,365 vs. $118,216,333 Giants

Batting average
Reds .251 vs. .269 Giants

On-base percentage
Reds .315 vs. .327 Giants

Slugging percentage
Reds .411 vs. .397 Giants

Home runs
Reds 172 vs. 103 Giants

Triples
Reds 30 vs. 57 Giants

Stolen bases
Reds 87 vs. 118 Giants

Errors
Reds 89 vs. 116 Giants

Team ERA
Reds .334 vs. .368 Giants

Shutouts
Reds 12 vs. 14 Giants

Hits leader
Brandon Phillips 163 vs. 190 Marco Scutaro

Doubles leader
Joey Votto 44 vs. 39 Buster Posey 

Triples leader
Todd Frazier 6 vs. 15 Angel Pagan 

Home runs leader 
Jay Bruce 34 vs. 24 Hunter Pence

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Welcome to October

Dear Cincinnati,

I don't want to cloud this moment with words, as today is a special day for the city.

It is a day to relax, a day to prepare. It is a day of anticipation as to what may come in the next few weeks, but also of gratification knowing that the Reds will forever be a part of the 2012 postseason.

Today, there are no games. No at-bats, no umps screaming balls and strikes, no beer vendors hollering up and down the rows. Not even a "Wooooo" breaks the silence. Just a peaceful quiet around Great American Ballpark. A tranquil, Fall Thursday.

Drink it in.

This is what baseball is supposed to be in Cincinnati.

This is October.

Welcome back, Reds.


Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Jim Mora's worst nightmare

Playoffs? Don't talk about--playoffs?! You kidding me?! Playoffs?

Okay, okay, I'm no Jim Mora, and the fact is, October is here. The Fall Classic is just weeks away, and the Cincinnati Reds have a chance to get there. With two games left in the season, though, the exact path to the World Series is unclear. The Nationals and Reds are currently tied for the best record in baseball, fighting for that number one spot.

So here's the breakdown: Cincy at St. Louis tonight and tomorrow, Washington home versus Philadelphia same days. Both are 96-64, but the Nats are 5-2 against the Redlegs, breaking the tie. The following outcomes over the next two days....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 2
2. Reds win 1, Nats win 1
3. Reds win 0, Nats win 0
4. Reds win 1, Nats win 2
5. Reds win 0, Nats win 2
6. Reds win 0, Nats win 1....

.....would produce:


The Reds would travel to San Francisco to play the No. 3 seeded, NL West Champion Giants for two games, Oct. 6-7. The next game will be at Great American Ballpark on Oct. 8, as will the following two should they be needed (series is best of five).

Or, the following outcomes.....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 1
2. Reds win 2, Nats win 0
3. Reds win 1, Nats win 0

would produce a playoff bracket like this, with the Cincinnati Reds owning the best record in all of MLB: 

If this turns out to be the case, the Reds will have to wait until after the Oct. 5 wildcard game to see who their opponent is, then fly to their city. They would then play two games at host Atlanta/St. Louis, then fly back for the third game in Cincinnati, as well as the last two, should they be required (again, best of five series). The major benefit of owning the best record would be, in theory, that the wildcard team they're facing will have already thrown their ace two days beforehand.

Whatever the case, the Reds will not be starting their playoff run at home. Whether this will benefit/harm them is questionable, but keep in mind the Reds are 46-31 on the road this season (second best in MLB, Washington is first).



Saturday, September 29, 2012

Homer? Our Homer?

Last night, as we sat around the television counting down the outs, the most unlikely hero in the Reds' rotation emerged. Homer Bailey accomplished what no other Red could since 1988. He threw a no-hitter.

Homer Bailey, maybe unjustly, has caught a bad rap in Cincinnati. Most likely, this has to do with all the hype that surrounded the Texan after being drafted seventh overall in 2004. In 2007, he finally hit the big leagues, with expectations of the youngster to become the club's ace. Because of control issues, he hasn't maintained the consistent success that many in Cincinnati had hoped for. Much to the delight of the rest of the NL Central, Bailey is known for his inconsistency: one night a gem, the next outing a joke.

The division, though, is scared of Bailey the kid of late, and rightfully so.

Third or fourth best in most rotations would probably mean you're a pretty expendable arm. In Cincinnati, however, with Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and even Bronson Arroyo, fourth is a pretty respectable place to be.

ESPN Sweetspot blogger Dave Schoenfield referred to Bailey in today's blog as an "elite pitcher." Most in Cincinnati would look at the name and the label and laugh. Homer? Our Homer?

Schoenfield, obviously not from Cincinnati, pulls some pretty incredible stats from last night's performance.

1. After averaging 90 mph on his fastball through three innings and 90.6 in the middle three, Bailey amped it up to 92.1 over the final three innings. A little adrenaline, sure, but it's also an approach Justin Verlander has mastered in recent seasons, saving your best bullets for late in the game.

2. Bailey registered 17 swings-and-misses in the game, his second-highest total in 2012, so the pure stuff was excellent on this night.


3. He threw his fastball for strikes 76 percent of the time, his third-highest percentage of the season. 


The third point is the most important. As we have lost confidence in Bailey over the years, he has gained control. According to Schoenfield, his walk percentage by season has steadily dropped: 13.7 percent, 9.4, 10.5, 8.6, 5.9, 6.1. (Compare those to the 2012 walk percentages of R.A. Dickey, 6.0%, Johnny Cueto, 5.6%, and Stephen Strasburg, 7.4%). 2012 is Bailey's first double-digit win season, but also his first double-digit loss season (13-10), with injuries and minor league appearances scattered across his career. The numbers don't lie: Homer Bailey is improving. Elite, though? Ask me at the end of October.

There is no denying after last night that, for the Reds to make the playoff run the city, Bailey is going to have to play a key role. His arm lies in a critical part of the rotation, beyond the one-two punch of Cueto and Latos, deep in the trenches where having a solid arm will tip the scales.

Homer Bailey shocked Cincinnati last night. It may have been the seventh MLB no-no this year, but the only one that matters to the Queen City, a performance even Tom Browning must respect.

Forget now about the stats, and even the dismal batting performance by the Reds. The true romanticism of baseball shined bright as catcher Ryan Hanigan ran to the mound to give the new Cincy immortal a triumphant hug.

Homer Bailey's smile said it all. Our Homer?

Yes, our Homer.
 

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Wake me up when September ends


Cincinnati Reds (93-62)

9/28 @ Pittsburgh, 7:05 p.m., CIN Homer Bailey (12-10) vs. PIT A.J. Burnett (16-8)
9/29 @ Pittsburgh, 7:05 p.m., CIN Mike Leake (8-9) vs. PIT Kyle McPherson (0-2)
9/30 @ Pittsburgh, 1:35 p.m., CIN Johnny Cueto (19-9) vs. PIT Wandy Rodriguez (12-13)

With today's final matchup against the Brewers, the Redlegs close out the regular season home schedule at Great American Ballpark. Then it's off to Pittsburgh, the city of midseason hopes, to face the team that many predicted would win the division. The Pirates, of course, faded away about a month ago, the stellar pitching staff becoming average at best. For the Reds, it may seem like an opportunity to coast out with a division title, but there are greater things at stake here. Prior to today's game against Milwaukee, Cincinnati is just a game back of Washington for the best record in baseball, and with it, the top seed in the playoffs. By topping the Nationals, the Reds could potentially avoid meeting the hot San Francisco Giants until further down the road, and face a wild-card team whose ace likely will have been used up in the one-game playoff. It's not the end of the season by any means if the Reds can't dominate the Bucs, but gaining momentum going into the playoffs could certainly benefit Cincy.


UC Bearcats (2-0)

9/29 Home vs. Virginia Tech (3-1) (Ranked 25th in USA Today Poll), 3:30 p.m.

Possibly the premier matchup of the week for the Queen City, as both teams are on the verge of cracking into the top ranks. In Cincinnati's opening game, they routed Pittsburgh 34-10. Two weeks ago, the Hokies traveled to Heinz Field only to be defeated 35-17 by the Panthers. Does this tip the scales in favor of the Big East team? Likely close, but Nippert Stadium is definitely going to be crazy come Saturday afternoon.


Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

9/30 @ Jacksonville (1-2) , 4:05 p.m., CIN

Andy Dalton could have a decent day against a sub-par Jacksonville secondary, but look for running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis to be the hero for the Bengals in Florida. The Jaguars have the 31st ranked rush defense in the league three weeks in, and aren't showing signs of improvement. It's safe to say that the Bengals will likely score big in this one. On the defensive side of the ball,  Blaine Gabbert hasn't proven to be a threatening NFL quarterback yet, posting only 260, 53, and 155 yards the first three games. The true threat to Cincinnati lies in the the Jacksonville backfield with RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew has, without question, been a top-five running back this season. There aren't many aerial weapons to take pressure off him, but MJD gets it done, and the Bengals rush defense has given up 99+ yards every game so far to much lesser backs.


Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Toothpicks and heartaches


Motivation.

It’s what get’s us out of bed in the morning, what pushes us to run farther, try harder, test our very physical and psychological limits. It’s what allows underdogs to topple giants, silver to turn to gold, and records to be shattered.

Motivation is what he;ed Torrey Smith, wide receiver of the Baltimore Ravens, to have the game of his life on Sunday night, 12 hours after the passing of his younger brother. It is what led Lance Armstrong to defeat cancer and win yet another and another Tour de France (I’m not one to say whether he juiced or not, but either way, what he did is unbelievable).

Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are coasting to the end of the season, some breathing room rightfully earned through one of the most dominant regular seasons in Reds’ history. The last few weeks of Cincinnati Reds baseball has been without urgency, and understandably so. With the largest gap of any division leader, the Reds can afford the luxury of taking the gas off the pedal. They are not dominating the win column as the did in the mid-summer months, with the ball leaping off the bat of Frazier and Phillips, Votto cheering from afar as the team did what know one believed could without him. The bullpen has relaxed, with Chapman making his well-rested return on Sunday night.

The Reds are the NL Central League Champions, and they finished it out without the man who captained them there, who believed in his team when no one believed in him. Dusty Baker is constantly under scrutiny in this town, even with questions of whether he is the man for the job next year. Second best record in baseball, and the criticism of his coaching techniques does not subside.

While in Chicago on Wednesday, Baker was checked into the hospital and diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (irregular heartbeat). As he was being discharged on Friday, he suffered a mini-stroke and immediately was treated by the hospital’s stroke team, which minimized the effects of the stroke.

Baker, the man who has led this team the entire season, the person who is questioned most when the Reds lose, but receives the least credit when they win again and again, released a statement today.

"While at Wrigley Field I was blessed to have our trainer, Paul Lessard, have the good sense to call in Cubs team physician Dr. Stephen Adams, who examined me in the clubhouse, immediately determined how serious by condition was and personally rushed me to Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Dr. Broderick and Dr. Kereiakes are going to make sure I'm ready to handle the duties of managing before I return full time. My family and I are very grateful for the support we've received the past few days from Mr. Castellini and our ownership group, Walt, our friends, the baseball family and especially Reds fans. I'm feeling much better, and it's great being back here in Cincinnati. Chris Speier and my staff are doing a terrific job, and I look forward to getting back to the dugout."

I speak now to the Cincinnati Reds organiztion. Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals used the motivation of the underdog role to propel them through the playoffs, a rouge bunch that couldn’t be stopped in October. Dusty Baker is your leader, your manager, your friend. He has missed out on the best part of the season, the clinch, the celebration of what he worked towards all year.

It is not time to coast. It is time to press even harder. Time to score even more runs, strike out even more batters. The postseason starts in a week and a half, likely against the Giants. Momentum is a key to the game of baseball. Gain it. To turn it on and off again will not do, another Halladay haunt will put you back again at home, with everyone wearing NL Central Champs t-shirts. It’s not enough.

Not for the man who has been your friend. The man who has led this team to a .601 win percentage, who has taken the heat when a pitcher get’s rocked, who has to face the press when the game of baseball turns its ugly head, and who listens to 700 WLW talk of how great Walt Jocketty and Bob Castellini are for the team whenever the Reds win.

You need motivation? Look to the end of the dugout tonight. The man standing there doesn’t have a toothpick hanging out of is mouth.

Dusty is believed to be recovering fine, hopefully to return for October’s St. Louis series. If all goes well, he will be a lucky, healthy manager.

Motivation. From today until the day you hold that World Series trophy, it’s what you’ll need. Dusty Baker, the man who has led all season, again has provided the tool that the Cincinnati Reds need for success.

Don’t do it for yourselves, the fans, you’re teammates, or even the city.

Do it for Dusty.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Will the MLS ever call Cincinnati home?


FC Queen City?

Has a nice ring to it, eh?

With the growing popularity of soccer in the United States, Major League Soccer is expanding on an annual basis. It’s only a matter of time before Cincinnati begins to question: when will it be the Queen City’s turn on the professional pitch?

In reality, an MLS team in Cincinnati is not a farfetched idea.

“I would say it’s unlikely in the near term, but long term, it’s possible,” says Doug McIntyre, soccer staff writer for ESPN The Magazine.

To see how a side might be received in Cincinnati, we can look to its nearest neighbor for comparison. Ohio’s capital is home to one of ten of the MLS’s 1996 founding members, the Columbus Crew. The Crew have one of the largest fan bases in the country, and according to McIntyre, are on the path of profitability.

“I think that’s a natural rival for a team in Cincinnati,” says McIntyre. “MLS has really been trying to foster those rivalries in recent years. It was very strategic to get a team in Philadelphia (Union est. 2010), with a close proximity to D.C. and New York.”

An even larger example of a rivalry is the recent development of the MLS in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle Sounders FC (est. 2009), Portland Timbers (est. 2011), and Vancouver Whitecaps (est. 2011) have become some of most popular teams in the country, with the most passionate fans in Major League Soccer.

“Sometimes, when you have two teams in close proximity, instead of one taking fans from the other, and I’m sure there are Crew fans that live in Cincinnati, it actually helps both teams because now there’s something to talk about: now there’s a rivalry,” says McIntyre.

Why has Cincinnati and Southwest Ohio become such a soccer hotbed in the U.S. landscape? The Cincinnati Enquirer High School Sports Editor Mike Dyer sees the development of the sport’s popularity building from the younger generation and up.

“There’s a huge, huge club influence in Cincinnati, and that has to do with the popularity of the sport, that drives it a lot,” Dyer says.

Even more than the youth level, Dyer feels the roots of the city even play on the city’s hunger for the original “football.”

“There’s some influence, going back to a lot of the German heritage of the Queen City,” Dyer says. “Again, if you’re looking at it from a youth standpoint, this is a really, really big family town. Obviously your kids can play other sports, but what is the sport most of them are going to be exposed to and identified with first?”

In the suburbs, that sport is generally soccer. This may explain why a recent ESPN article by Roger Bennett claims that soccer has passed up the MLB and NBA to become the second most popular sport for Americans ages 12-24.

So Cincinnati has the young fan base and the interest in the game; how does an MLS team happen?

“I think for any city that wants a pro sports team, there’s a few keys you need,” McIntyre says. “First, you need a facility, and then you need an owner with a lot of money. So, if Cincinnati can manage to get an ownership group that wants a team, they can either build the stadium themselves, or enter into a public/private partnership to get a soccer-specific stadium built. Then, yeah, they could possibly get a team.”

Seattle Sounders FC and the New England Revolution are two MLS teams that play in NFL stadiums, but the league is trying to step away from that mold. New, soccer specific stadiums are the preference for pro soccer teams, as they want to be able to control the revenue steams, scheduling, and not play on fields with football lines on them.

In Seattle and New England, though, the owners of the MLS teams are also the owners of the NFL teams, the Seahawks and Patriots. If an MLS team were to come to Cincinnati, the most realistic buyer would likely be Mike Brown, owner of the Cincinnati Bengals. After some disgruntled citizens uneasy about the public money poured into Paul Brown Stadium, it is unlikely a soccer-specific stadium would be publicly funded in the near future. Paul Brown Stadium could potentially then be the home to an MLS franchise, should Mike Brown ever consider the option.

Although not necessarily an immediate venture, the rapid expansion of the league may eventually sweep over the city. Right now, the MLS is looking to upstart another team in New York City, already home to the New York Red Bulls (again, building on the idea of rivalries helping popularity). Minneapolis is in talking about building a new stadium for the Vikings, with an MLS team also in mind. When the league began, there were two teams in Florida (Tampa Munity, 1996-2001; Miami Fusion FC, 1998-2001). Currently, there are no teams in the southeastern U.S., so Miami, Atlanta, and the Raleigh-Durham areas are all likely more attractive candidates for the MLS in the near future.

“Another thing is that the league has room to grow,” says McIntyre. “There’s 19 teams in the league now. While [20’s] the preferred size for soccer leagues around the world, Europe kind of frowns on leagues bigger than 20 teams, that’s sort of the ‘perfect number.’ It’s not huge for the United States, which is obviously a huge market. It’s the richest market in the world. And, every major sports league in the U.S. has 30 teams or more.”

Another step Cincinnati could take in attracting an MLS franchise would be to host an international friendly or World Cup qualifying match, as Columbus did last week at Crew Stadium (U.S. Men’s National Team vs. Jamaica). Cincinnati has never hosted one of these matches, men’s or women’s, so the turnout rate is untested for soccer in the city.

“I think you’ve seen in the past where an area has hosted a friendly match and gotten a huge turnout, and people started saying wow, this is a really ripe market for soccer,” says McIntyre. “One of the steps of Seattle getting a team, in 2006, Real Madrid came to town and actually played D.C. United, and they sold the place out. Obviously, it was probably because they had David Beckham and a bunch of other players at the time in the lineup, but they sold the place out and it really sort of got the wheels in motion for getting an MLS team there. It took three years, but they did it. So, absolutely there’s a history of that happening.”

Even with the sports popularity, the idea is still questionable to some. Trent Storch, a college student who grew up playing soccer in the Tri-State, says although he would support an MLS franchise, it may be a short-lived phase in Cincinnati.

“I’m not sure it would work. I mean, Cincinnati is a good-team fan city,” says Storch. “When considering the Bengals, you can see how they lack support when they’re not doing well. I think that the buzz of a new MLS franchise would create a solid fan base at first, but if they aren’t a solid team it will die off. Not every team can be as successful as the Oklahoma City Thunder when it comes to gaining loyalty from a city.”

Dyer, again having a great perspective on generational trend of sports fans in Cincinnati, also questions a sustained support for a pro soccer team.

“It’s interesting. There’s arguments I hear from different people saying that soccer is really popular at the youth level, but once an individual athlete reaches a plateau, maybe college, then the interest may wane a little bit,” Dyer says. “Then you go back to the ‘mainstream’ sports.”

Dyer and Storch both, though, have recognized the growing popularity of the “beautiful game” and feel there is a niche out there in Cincinnati that would cling to an MLS squad.

Whether an MLS team is in the future for Cincinnati is yet to be seen, but what is evident is that it is not impossible. To reach the feat, the city needs to provide the facility and an ownership offer must step up.

“I think that everyone agrees that soccer has a lot of room to grow,” says McIntyre. “The other major sports in the U.S. have seemed to mature a little bit. I think they’ll still grow, but how much? Soccer has plenty of room to grow. There’s going to be more teams, and there’s going to be more cities that want teams. Eventually, Cincinnati may have a team, just like a lot of places down the list. So yeah, it could happen, if you find a guy that has a lot of money and wants a team, that’s the fastest way to make it happen for sure.”

FC Queen City may be just a dream to some now, but if the right steps are taken, that dream may become a reality for the next generation of Cincinnati.