The five stages of mourning

It's taken some time for me to work up the nerve to write this. The past few days I think I've gone through all the stages of mourning.

First, denial. It's not over. 162 regular season games over five and half months, 97 wins through the good times and the bad. It can't be over, not like this. It went so well, two games no problem? No. It just...can't.

Next, anger. 28 men left on base over the three home games? Catchers letting pitches by for extra bases? Errors? This has been a team with a .985 regular season fielding percentage, sixth best in the MLB, and now a bobble when it counts? And why look at that strike, Ryan Hanigin, even if it was close? Swing! You have guys running! Make contact! Dusty, why not pitch Chapman two innings when he's hot? So many things...makes me...so...mad.

Then came bargaining. If you do this again next year, Reds, I'll quit being a fan. But, redeem yourselves, win it all, and I'll forget it ever happened. If you stay out of my head for awhile and let me try to look forward to college basketball, I'll forget the pain. At least, oh gods of baseball, let Todd Frazier win Rookie of the Year, and I won't be so upset.

Depression, the worst stage of all, hit next. I was irritable to those around me. In a daze, I was brokenhearted. How could they do this. This was the team, the time, Cincinnati had waited so long. Was it bad luck? No matter what I did, I couldn't stop thinking about it. Brandon Phillips played great. Homer Bailey pitched as if he were Justin Verlander's long lost twin. But now, they have to start all over again.

Finally, as I painfully write this, acceptance. 2012, despite the ending, was a great season for the Cincinnati Reds. The city rallied behind the team, and they responded with win after win. Vying for the best record in baseball, stars like Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier emerged in the absence of seemingly irreplacable Joey Votto. Mat Latos demonstrated his worth on the mound, while Aroldis Champan became a national story as a closer. Long-term deals were signed, with Votto and Phillips sticking around for years to come. Bailey finally arrived after years of waiting, and DatDudeBP once again showed that he is one of the most underrated players in the league.

A 2012 National League Central Division Champions pennant now hangs on the wall of my room, with space around it for the seasons to come.

Too good to be true...so far

At risk of jinxing tonight's game, I'm going to say it: the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far in the 2012 postseason.

As if a 9-0 win over the Giants on Sunday night doesn't prove it, look at the offensive and defensive numbers of the club. The Reds have the highest batting average thus far of any postseason team left (.297, Atlanta recorded a .308 in their wild-card loss) and a 1.00 earned run average.

Let me repeat that: a 1.00 E....R....A.

In the opinion of many critics, the national media has done a poor job of recognizing the talented rotation and bullpen in the Queen City all year (3.34 regular season ERA, third best in entire MLB). The Reds did all they could to be noticed over the weekend, though, even overcoming unthinkable circumstances to get a decisive win.

With Johnny Cueto's back injury just eight pitches into Saturday's game, the hopes and dreams of a Red October deflated from me like air from a balloon. What was to come, however, reinstated that confidence, and pushed the level of belief higher than ever before. Sam LeCure produced when called upon, and Mat Latos showed once again why the offseason trade with the Padres was one of the best moves of the Walt Jocketty era.

Bronson Arroyo, without his red hooded sweatshirt, took the mound in a fly-ball park, his specialty, and dazzled the national viewing audience. Arroyo went seven strong innings with one hit, one walk, and no runs scored.

Matthew Carroll may have summed it up best in his tweet:

Matthew Carroll ‏@CoachMCarroll

Watching bronson arroyo pitch when he is on is like watching the worlds best wiffle ball pitcher. #Reds @DatDudeBP

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Brandon Phillips has taken advantage of the national spotlight, showing once again that he should be considered one of the greatest second baseman in the game, and that his absence in the All-Star game was in fact a snub. Phillips is batting .500 over the first two playoff games with a home run, postseason-leading four RBIs, and two doubles, all over five hits. Cap that off with some great defensive plays, especially the diving back-up behind first to save a run, and Phillips has looked like the postseason MVP two games in.

Jay Bruce, one of the streakiest All-Stars in baseball, is on fire thus far, and when number 32 is hot, he's hot. Bruce also has a home run (a monster 436-foot shot), two doubles, and three RBIs.

Another bright spot in the first few games for Cincinnati has been left field, usually the cause of much uncertainty for the Reds. Ryan Ludwick has come up big on both sides of the ball, with a few great snags, one diving and one over the head, along with a 432-foot bomb off of Madison Bumgarner. With Ludwick acting as a real threat at the plate, he's also drawing some walks and has scored a pair of runs to go with his .333 playoff batting average.

Some less positive spots have accompanied the glory games of October thus far. Aroldis Chapman, one of the most dominant closers this year, was having control issues on Saturday night. He escaped with allowing only one run on a wild pitch, but loaded the bases in the process with a hit and two walks. Chapman showed physical frustration when he felt the umpire missed a few strikes, but to criticize Chapman too harshly is unnecessary at this point. At some point, maybe even tonight, a close battle can not afford even one run surrendered by the Cuban Missile, and he will need to keep his composure to ensure Cincinnati can count on him in the late inning.

Another more obvious negative is the Johnny Cueto injury. Yes, Dusty and the Reds were quick on their feet when Redleg Nation had lost hope, but the Cy Young candidate is a crucial part of the lineup and will be needed come Game 4 or 5. Cueto is optimistic of a return by then, but the evaluation is still a day-to-day process. 

Tonight, though, MLB's newest member of the no-no club will take the mound. Homer Bailey, fresh off one of baseball's most difficult feats, takes the mound at 5:30 against Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.39 ERA). The Reds can clinch the series tonight with a win, giving them a four-day rest before facing either St. Louis or Washington (series tied 1-1).

As, I said, with chance of jinxing all that is good in Cincinnati, the Reds have been the most dominant team thus far. Tonight, they strive to continue on the path to all the way.

Numbers never lie

The Reds and Giants take the field in less than an hour for Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Cincinnati and San Francisco both have dominant pitching staffs, but this one will likely decided on who plays the best small-ball (AT&T is the ranked as the second most pitcher-friendly park by ESPN). To prepare you, we turn to the numbers:

Record

Reds 97-65 vs. 94-68 Giants

2012 regular season head-to-head

Reds 4 vs. 3 Giants

Last meeting on July 1

Reds 3 vs. 4 Giants 

Games decided by one run between CIN and SF

Reds 64 vs. 50 Giants

Opening Day payroll

Reds $76,181,365 vs. $118,216,333 Giants

Batting average

Reds .251 vs. .269 Giants

On-base percentage

Reds .315 vs. .327 Giants

Slugging percentage

Reds .411 vs. .397 Giants

Home runs

Reds 172 vs. 103 Giants

Triples

Reds 30 vs. 57 Giants

Stolen bases

Reds 87 vs. 118 Giants

Errors

Reds 89 vs. 116 Giants

Team ERA

Reds .334 vs. .368 Giants

Shutouts

Reds 12 vs. 14 Giants

Hits leader

Brandon Phillips 163 vs. 190 Marco Scutaro

Doubles leader

Joey Votto 44 vs. 39 Buster Posey 

Triples leader

Todd Frazier 6 vs. 15 Angel Pagan 

Home runs leader 

Jay Bruce 34 vs. 24 Hunter Pence

Welcome to October

Dear Cincinnati,

I don't want to cloud this moment with words, as today is a special day for the city.

It is a day to relax, a day to prepare. It is a day of anticipation as to what may come in the next few weeks, but also of gratification knowing that the Reds will forever be a part of the 2012 postseason.

Today, there are no games. No at-bats, no umps screaming balls and strikes, no beer vendors hollering up and down the rows. Not even a "Wooooo" breaks the silence. Just a peaceful quiet around Great American Ballpark. A tranquil, Fall Thursday.

Drink it in.

This is what baseball is supposed to be in Cincinnati.

This is October.

Welcome back, Reds.

Jim Mora's worst nightmare

Playoffs? Don't talk about--playoffs?! You kidding me?! Playoffs?

Okay, okay, I'm no Jim Mora, and the fact is, October is here. The Fall Classic is just weeks away, and the Cincinnati Reds have a chance to get there. With two games left in the season, though, the exact path to the World Series is unclear. The Nationals and Reds are currently tied for the best record in baseball, fighting for that number one spot.

So here's the breakdown: Cincy at St. Louis tonight and tomorrow, Washington home versus Philadelphia same days. Both are 96-64, but the Nats are 5-2 against the Redlegs, breaking the tie. The following outcomes over the next two days....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 2
2. Reds win 1, Nats win 1
3. Reds win 0, Nats win 0
4. Reds win 1, Nats win 2
5. Reds win 0, Nats win 2
6. Reds win 0, Nats win 1....

.....would produce:

The Reds would travel to San Francisco to play the No. 3 seeded, NL West Champion Giants for two games, Oct. 6-7. The next game will be at Great American Ballpark on Oct. 8, as will the following two should they be needed (series is best of five).

Or, the following outcomes.....

1. Reds win 2, Nats win 1

2. Reds win 2, Nats win 0

3. Reds win 1, Nats win 0

would produce a playoff bracket like this, with the Cincinnati Reds owning the best record in all of MLB: 

If this turns out to be the case, the Reds will have to wait until after the Oct. 5 wildcard game to see who their opponent is, then fly to their city. They would then play two games at host Atlanta/St. Louis, then fly back for the third game in Cincinnati, as well as the last two, should they be required (again, best of five series). The major benefit of owning the best record would be, in theory, that the wildcard team they're facing will have already thrown their ace two days beforehand.

Whatever the case, the Reds will not be starting their playoff run at home. Whether this will benefit/harm them is questionable, but keep in mind the Reds are 46-31 on the road this season (second best in MLB, Washington is first).

Toothpicks and heartaches

Motivation.

It’s what get’s us out of bed in the morning, what pushes us to run farther, try harder, test our very physical and psychological limits. It’s what allows underdogs to topple giants, silver to turn to gold, and records to be shattered.

Motivation is what he;ed Torrey Smith, wide receiver of the Baltimore Ravens, to have the game of his life on Sunday night, 12 hours after the passing of his younger brother. It is what led Lance Armstrong to defeat cancer and win yet another and another Tour de France (I’m not one to say whether he juiced or not, but either way, what he did is unbelievable).

Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are coasting to the end of the season, some breathing room rightfully earned through one of the most dominant regular seasons in Reds’ history. The last few weeks of Cincinnati Reds baseball has been without urgency, and understandably so. With the largest gap of any division leader, the Reds can afford the luxury of taking the gas off the pedal. They are not dominating the win column as the did in the mid-summer months, with the ball leaping off the bat of Frazier and Phillips, Votto cheering from afar as the team did what know one believed could without him. The bullpen has relaxed, with Chapman making his well-rested return on Sunday night.

The Reds are the NL Central League Champions, and they finished it out without the man who captained them there, who believed in his team when no one believed in him. Dusty Baker is constantly under scrutiny in this town, even with questions of whether he is the man for the job next year. Second best record in baseball, and the criticism of his coaching techniques does not subside.

While in Chicago on Wednesday, Baker was checked into the hospital and diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (irregular heartbeat). As he was being discharged on Friday, he suffered a mini-stroke and immediately was treated by the hospital’s stroke team, which minimized the effects of the stroke.

Baker, the man who has led this team the entire season, the person who is questioned most when the Reds lose, but receives the least credit when they win again and again, released a statement today.

"While at Wrigley Field I was blessed to have our trainer, Paul Lessard, have the good sense to call in Cubs team physician Dr. Stephen Adams, who examined me in the clubhouse, immediately determined how serious by condition was and personally rushed me to Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Dr. Broderick and Dr. Kereiakes are going to make sure I'm ready to handle the duties of managing before I return full time. My family and I are very grateful for the support we've received the past few days from Mr. Castellini and our ownership group, Walt, our friends, the baseball family and especially Reds fans. I'm feeling much better, and it's great being back here in Cincinnati. Chris Speier and my staff are doing a terrific job, and I look forward to getting back to the dugout."

I speak now to the Cincinnati Reds organiztion. Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals used the motivation of the underdog role to propel them through the playoffs, a rouge bunch that couldn’t be stopped in October. Dusty Baker is your leader, your manager, your friend. He has missed out on the best part of the season, the clinch, the celebration of what he worked towards all year.

It is not time to coast. It is time to press even harder. Time to score even more runs, strike out even more batters. The postseason starts in a week and a half, likely against the Giants. Momentum is a key to the game of baseball. Gain it. To turn it on and off again will not do, another Halladay haunt will put you back again at home, with everyone wearing NL Central Champs t-shirts. It’s not enough.

Not for the man who has been your friend. The man who has led this team to a .601 win percentage, who has taken the heat when a pitcher get’s rocked, who has to face the press when the game of baseball turns its ugly head, and who listens to 700 WLW talk of how great Walt Jocketty and Bob Castellini are for the team whenever the Reds win.

You need motivation? Look to the end of the dugout tonight. The man standing there doesn’t have a toothpick hanging out of is mouth.

Dusty is believed to be recovering fine, hopefully to return for October’s St. Louis series. If all goes well, he will be a lucky, healthy manager.

Motivation. From today until the day you hold that World Series trophy, it’s what you’ll need. Dusty Baker, the man who has led all season, again has provided the tool that the Cincinnati Reds need for success.

Don’t do it for yourselves, the fans, you’re teammates, or even the city.

Do it for Dusty.