Has another Cuban Missile Crisis arisen upon this great nation?
First of all, a disclaimer. No one here is saying Aroldis Chapman
has hit rock bottom, or that there is any question as to who the best closer in
baseball is this season. Number 54 of the Reds has been excellent on the mound,
and for some time, unhittable.
Because of this dominance, any miscue at all raises red
flags across the country, and not the Cincinnati car-flags that fans attach to
their windows. No, being perfect comes with a price, and that price is having
your imperfections, when they finally surface, magnified in utter disbelief.
With that said, Chapman’s last two appearances have been
disasters. On Friday, he recorded a blown save off a Matt Dominguez three-run
homer, a shocking loss to the
worst team in baseball. Yesterday, he threw for two thirds of an inning before
being pulled after loading the bases with walks. His earned run average reached
1.61 after Friday’s fiasco, a number most closers would love. For Chapman
though, that number is his highest since July 20 and replaced his 1.23 ERA
going into the game.
Many people have pointed to Chapman’s velocity as the
problem. Dave Schoenfield of ESPN has reported that over his last three
appearances, it truly has declined. Chapman, known for posting triple digit
speeds, threw an average fastball speed of 98.0 mph on Sept. 4, 96.3 mph on
Sept. 7, and 94.4 mph yesterday, according to Schoenfield.
Concern?
“He might be a little tired. He might have to rest for
awhile,” Dusty Baker said yesterday following Chapman’s disappointing
performance.
On nine occasions this year, Chapman relied solely on his
fastball, some games averaging 100.0 to 101.3 mph. Lately, however, and not to
discredit the value of mixing it up, Chapman has significantly raised his implementation
of the slider. A usually effective pitch, Chapman threw his slider 21.7% of his
pitches during his blown save on Friday.
What does this mean? Is Chapman, who was supposed to be a
starter at the start of the year, reaching a point of late-season fatigue? Is
there a mechanical breakdown erasing those crucial few miles per hour that can
be a difference between the catcher’s mitt and the hands of a lucky fan in left
field?
In this analyst’s opinion, Chapman is simply starting to
wear down. Repetitive use does that to a player. Yes, many starters grow
stronger as the year progresses, but Chapman is a closer who makes an
appearance almost every other day, throwing high nineties to low hundreds on a
consistent basis. The body, and the arm in particular, naturally needs rest.
The largest question is what to do about the Cuban Missile
to best preserve him for the postseason. The odds of the Reds losing the
division are currently at .05%, so coasting from here on out is acceptable if
the goal is to make the playoffs. To succeed in October, though, Chapman must
play a critical role in the Cincinnati bullpen. That means having him at 100%,
pitching at or close to 100 mph.
For at least a week, I say rest the man. Maybe give him some
bullpen work to keep him sharp, but give the arm a break. Cincinnati signed
Jonathan Broxton before the trade deadline, a very capable closer who can
produce when called upon. Let Broxton carry the majority of the workload for
now, and then slide back into the setup role towards the end of the year.
This is not a Cuban Missile Crisis, Cincinnati. The missile
just simply needs to cool his jets before he’s ready to fire again.
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